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AFL: Round 4 2022

Pretty mixed bag this week, I am expecting some drubbings and a few close ones. PORT ADELAIDE VS. MELBOURNE Thursday April 7 1940hrs* @ Adelaide Oval. And haven't Port Adelaide been disappointing to start the season. It seems Melbourne have been going at 80% all year, and rightly enter the game as strong favourites. Very disappointing considering I was expecting a quality fixture pre-season. Port's forward lines are significantly weakened without Charlie Dixon, and will be unable to kick a big total against the league's best defence. Model Prediction: Melbourne by 17 pts @ 70%. GEELONG VS. BRISBANE Friday April 8 1950hrs @ Kardinia Park. Possibly this week's best game, Geelong's first home game of the season is against quality opposition. After humbling Essendon, Geelong haven't been all too impressive against Sydney and Collingwood, though their comeback against Collingwood was hilarious. Brisbane had the bye last week, and boosted their percentage with an 108

Simulations After Round 3 of the 2022 AFL Season.

  SIMULATIONS   Ten thousand simulations were run and the following results were obtained. The spreadsheet can be found here .

Simulations After Round 2 of the 2022 AFL Season

  SIMULATIONS   Ten thousand simulations were run and the following results were obtained. Here is the link to the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQQ1kAxyJpFHWcWYSPigKC7VM-2jwod1cup8Vklkqj-KXbbLnEIhzsU5-rpwjeVSr6ZY1IaCAenmcXP/pub?gid=1448474542&single=true&output=pdf I have tried making it a .pdf file this time. Let me know if you prefer viewing it on a webpage.

Simulations After Round 1 of the 2022 AFL Season

SIMULATIONS   Ten thousand simulations were run and the following results were obtained. Here is the link to the spreadsheet:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQQ1kAxyJpFHWcWYSPigKC7VM-2jwod1cup8Vklkqj-KXbbLnEIhzsU5-rpwjeVSr6ZY1IaCAenmcXP/pubhtml?gid=528182220&single=true There is no time for me to make a Round 2 preview post this week as I have school camp.

AFL: Round 1 2022

  For the first time in what seems like ages, every match in Round 1 looks to be competitive. MELBOURNE VS. FOOTSCRAY Wednesday March 16 1910hrs @ Melbourne Cricket Ground. For some reason, the executives at the AFL were so insistent that Carlton vs. Richmond was played on a Thursday night, that the scheduled the best match of the round on a Wednesday night. The ambition of 80,000 in attendance is was doomed from the outset. The media's attempt to build "hype" for the game has resulted in some shitty articles about a song. Besides the four premiership points, the winner of this match will be praised in the media as the "benchmark". Model Prediction: Melbourne by 10 pts @ 63% CARLTON VS. RICHMOND Thursday March 17 1925hrs @ Melbourne Cricket Ground. Both these teams had poor 2021 seasons; both these teams are touted by the media as the team to rise in 2022. I don't think Carlton are going to be any good this year, and Richmond will almost definitely be better

2022 AFL Season Preview

SIMULATIONS As with many long-term forecasts, the longer the forecast the more uncertainty there is. When simulating the home-and-away season and finals series, this is taken into consideration. After each match, the ratings are updated and the next match is simulated. This creates more accurate long-term forecasts at the cost of efficiency. In these 'hot' simulations, over time, ratings decay towards the mean score. Ten thousand simulations were run and the following results were obtained. Here is the link to the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQQ1kAxyJpFHWcWYSPigKC7VM-2jwod1cup8Vklkqj-KXbbLnEIhzsU5-rpwjeVSr6ZY1IaCAenmcXP/pubhtml?gid=1276015891&single=true There is a lot of uncertainty baked into the simulations. A more thorough discussion can be viewed for each team further down the page. STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE Also an often seen part of a preseason analysis is the strength of schedule. As you have seen with the uncertainty, strength of schedu

For Squiggle Bot 2022

The first sheet is the forecast tab. Next sheet is the data tab. Final sheet is the ratings tab.