Posts

For Squiggle Bot

The first sheet is the forecast tab. Next sheet is the data tab.

AFL 2021 Preseason

 Welcome Back This year I promise to be more active on this blog, and hopefully be able to post every week, provided there is time during SAC periods (like the Japanese one this week). This year there are a few updates to the simulations. The flagpole has been replaced with a median ladder, and there is now an expected percentage column next to the expected points column. Most weeks, there will not be much to talk about in these blog posts, occasionally, I may rant at the current affairs relating to football. Other blog posts may have match reviews of the games which I watch, this will primarily be Geelong matches. As for competitions which I am competing in this year, I have been told by Max that I am permitted into the Squiggle modelling tipping , this has yet to be finalised, though I am expected some sort of response within the next two weeks. I have joined the FMI-Play AFL competition , formerly FMITL; I'm new to the competition and I am in Division Six. I am also competing in

AFL: 2020 Round 4

Quick post this week, tips are below, but I mainly wanted to talk about the new projections tab. The season is simulated 10,000 after every matchday and the results of those simulations can be found in the projections tab. The first table shows the distribution of premiership points. The second shows the distribution of ladder positions. And the last show the distribution of the finals series.  A few close games this week, so good luck to all tippers, computer or human.  

AFL: 2020 Round 3

I have decided to make a couple changes to my model after a poor showing in the tipping last round. I have now created a proper HGA value. HGA advantage is 100 for an interstate home game, and 50 for a Melbourne team in Geelong and vice versa. This has made significant alterations to the current standings at present. I have also adjusted my margin prediction formula. Like other models this season, I have taken four-fifths of what would be the regular margin. The amount tips I have scored this season had remained unchanged. However, my bits and MAE have improved because of these adjustments.  On another note, I have decided to combine all of my spreadsheets into one master spreadsheet for each season. Below are my Round 3 tips, and you can also view tips for the other rounds. I will also be making individual team summary, and later there will be more additions. Those coming from Reddit or Twitter, please share this blog around so that one day I can join the Squiggle model tipping compet

AFL: 2020 Round 2

Hello all. Because AFL Tables has not updates I've had to manually calculate my tips for this week. Because of the coronavirus situation, it will be difficult for models this season. This week I've made some strange tips, many of the underdogs have been tipped. Most notably, I have tipped against Geelong. The bookies have Geelong as strong favourites, and other models have Geelong winning but are less confident. I have also tipped Essendon to win away at Sydney, which currently, no other models are doing. Carlton vs. Melbourne is a toss-up for a lot of models, I have gone for Carlton by a sixteen points. Below are my tips for Round 2.   My future plans include making a history section with spreadsheet for each season with tips, results, weekly ratings, and weekly ladders.

AFL: 2020 Round 1

Below were my tips, and the results from Round 1.