AFL: Round 4 2022

Pretty mixed bag this week, I am expecting some drubbings and a few close ones.

PORT ADELAIDE VS. MELBOURNE

Thursday April 7 1940hrs* @ Adelaide Oval.

And haven't Port Adelaide been disappointing to start the season. It seems Melbourne have been going at 80% all year, and rightly enter the game as strong favourites. Very disappointing considering I was expecting a quality fixture pre-season. Port's forward lines are significantly weakened without Charlie Dixon, and will be unable to kick a big total against the league's best defence.

Model Prediction: Melbourne by 17 pts @ 70%.

GEELONG VS. BRISBANE

Friday April 8 1950hrs @ Kardinia Park.

Possibly this week's best game, Geelong's first home game of the season is against quality opposition. After humbling Essendon, Geelong haven't been all too impressive against Sydney and Collingwood, though their comeback against Collingwood was hilarious. Brisbane had the bye last week, and boosted their percentage with an 108 point victory. Geelong's is building an attacking style, matching Brisbane, and on a narrow ground like Kardinia Park, a shootout is certainly possible.

Model Prediction: Geelong by 11 pts @ 63%

SYDNEY VS. NORTH MELBOURNE

Saturday April 9 1440hrs @ Sydney Cricket Ground.

There is not much to discuss with this match, it's a bye for Sydney. Sydney are seven goal favourites in the markets and would require a monumental failure to lose this match. I've already put a line through North winning this season (p < 0.01).

Model Prediction: Sydney by 33 pts @ 84%

COLLINGWOOD VS. WEST COAST

Saturday April 9 1635hrs @ Docklands.

From last week's result, that West Coast are truly shit. The wise punter who backed in West Coast for least wins are laughing. Add in that Collingwood have been performing at at least a mid-table level, and I expect another blowout. I've also already put a line through West Coast (p < 0.01), and the looming possibility of another COVID outbreak at West Coast may further derail an already dreadful season. 

Model Prediction: Collingwood by 16 pts @ 69%

RICHMOND VS. FOOTSCRAY

Saturday April 9 1925hrs @ Melbourne Cricket Ground.

From the talk on Twitter this week, it seems that Richmond fans are the ones clinging onto hope in this match. The logic is the following.

1. Richmond defeated Footscray in early 2021.

2. Footscray had won all of their first six matches.

3. Richmond were looking like a mid-table team.

And while I admire the hope of the Richmond supporters, they obviously enter the round as underdogs. Of course, Richmond's recent form from late last year and early this year has been dreadful to put it lightly. And while Footscray have only recorded their first victory last week, they are the better side.

Model Prediction: Footscray by 15 pts @ 68%

FREMANTLE VS. GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY

Saturday April 9 1925hrs* @ Perth Stadium.

Perhaps the most difficult game of the round to predict, two middle-of-the-road teams face off in a match crucial for their respective finals chances. Fremantle's midfield was severely undermanned last week, but defeating West Coast is simply not worth anything in my view. I think that this game hinges on the ins and outs of the Fremantle midfield, and more will be known on Thursday night. Greater Western Sydney also defeated weak opposition in Gold Coast comfortably.

Model Prediction: Greater Western Sydney by 1 pt @ 51%.

ESSENDON VS. ADELAIDE

Sunday April 10 1310hrs @ Docklands.

Onto the Sunday now, and for the second week in a row, it seems to have most of the compelling matches of the round. I don't think Essendon are nearly as bad as those in the media think that they are. Considering the opposition that Essendon have played, it wasn't unreasonable to see them lose all three matches. Finals chances are certainly not over for Essendon, but this match is simply a must win. As for Adelaide, they are the third and final team which I have put a line through (p < 0.01) despite their showdown heroics.

Model Prediction: Essendon by 13 pts @ 66%.

HAWTHORN VS. ST KILDA

Sunday April 10 1520hrs @ Melbourne Cricket Ground.

Two teams which I have greater than evens playing finals at this stage playing on free-to-air television on one of the best timeslots in football, and expected to be an even contest, and you've got the second best match of the round. Though some were tipping St Kilda to play finals, I hadn't seen anyone in the media, nor any of the models have Hawthorn in their top eight. Another difficult match to tip, but certainly a match I will show a keen interest in as it may shape the rest of the season.

Model Prediction: St Kilda by 4 pts @ 55%.

GOLD COAST VS. CARLTON

Sunday April 10 1610hrs @ Carrara.

I am already getting sick of hearing Carlton being talked about constantly in the media, and I think many in my generation are going to learn what Carlton supporters are truly like. Thankfully, a combination of Gold Coast's home ground advantage, and Carlton's unsustainable efficiency, may be Carlton's undoing. Wouldn't it be great comic relief after all this hype to see Carlton turn out to be shit. Perhaps this is just wishful thinking on my end.

Model Prediction: Carlton by 4 pts @ 55%.

*All times in AEDT.

Thanks for reading.