AFL: Round 19 2022

 As we approach the end of the home-and-away season, we will certainly see more and more games which shape the composition and permutation of the finals series. In the most recent simulation replicates, fourteen teams qualified for finals (sixteen mathematically), and eleven teams earned a double-chance (twelve mathematically). West Coast and North Melbourne remain the only teams which are mathematically eliminated. Five teams have all but qualified for finals (Geelong, Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, and Fremantle), and Geelong have almost guaranteed a double chance. Let's get into this weeks games.

RICHMOND vs. FREMANTLE

Friday July 22 1950hrs @ Docklands.

Richmond playing their "home" game at Damien Hardwick's favourite venue. My model has a very questionable tip considering it's ignorance on players. Dustin Martin and Tom Lynch will miss another round of football, and those outs suggest to me that this match is much closer to a coinflip than the model is suggesting. Considering the players missing from a full strength side for both teams, I would have Richmond as a very slight favourite. Fremantle are forecasted to finish fifth, and Richmond eighth; the implications are that this is one of the most important matches of the round. Fans of the clubs in ninth-twelfth (do Gold Coast have fans?) will be hoping the Fremantle can win away again. Hopefully this match is a nice reward after my Specialist Maths Test on the same day.

Model Prediction: Richmond by 11 pts @ 64%.

NORTH MELBOURNE vs. HAWTHORN

Saturday July 23 1345hrs @ Bellerive Oval

It's an all Tassie payroll clash, and perhaps the last time that we see North Melbourne play in Tasmania if the AFL do no award I licence to Tasmania. North Melbourne ended their fourteen match losing streak against Richmond last Saturday, and a game where they generate less opportunities but converted well enough against a wasteful opposition. Hawthorn played easier opposition in West Coast, and comfortable disposed of them; getting to follow that up with another easy opponent. Hawthorn should win, but North Melbourne have been trending upwards in the last two weeks, and should believe they are a small but reasonable chance to win at their second home in Hobart this week. Both of the Saturday afternoon games this week have a high chance of being uncompetitive, perhaps a game for radio if you have better things to be doing this weekend.

Model Prediction: Hawthorn by 21 pts @ 74%.

SYDNEY vs. ADELAIDE

Saturday July 23 1345hrs @ S.C.G.

Simultaneous first bounces seem to make my Twitter followers rage. Just like the last game, I would recommend listening to this match on the radio if you have nothing better to do. I think that Sydney are a serious chance at a premiership this year; and certainly will have plenty of opportunities in the next couple of years; and should easily defeat Adelaide at home. Sydney have probably the easiest remaining fixture, and because of this, should find their way in the top four and earn a double chance.

Model Prediction: Sydney by 33 pts @ 84%.

PORT ADELAIDE vs. GEELONG

Saturday July 23 1635hrs* @ Adelaide Oval

One of the higher quality matches this week, Port Adelaide home ground advantage makes up a large portion of the gap in quality between the side. However, on the afl.com.au weekly tipping, not a single "expert" has gone with Port Adelaide to my surprise. This game in my view could easily go either way. This game is more important for Port Adelaide than it is for Geelong, and Geelong could still very easily win the minor premiership if they drop this game, however, Port Adelaide would need to win every game and require some additional luck from other matches if they were to lose this game. A must watch for those with pay TV/subscriptions.

Model Prediction: Geelong by 7 pts @  58%.

BRISBANE vs. GOLD COAST

Saturday July 24 1910hrs @ Gabba

Time for the most fake "rivalry", the twenty-third installment of the QClash. For once this game might have serious implications, however I think Brisbane are a better side than Gold Coast, and are getting most of their players back after two COVID-affected weeks. If you have to choose a game for Saturday night viewing, this isn't going to be this one.

Model Prediction: Brisbane by 10 pts @ 63%.

FOOTSCRAY vs. MELBOURNE

Saturday July 24 1925hrs @ Docklands

The last game on the Saturday, and the fixture bosses (Channel 7) have got this one correct, the best option for Saturday night football in Victoria. This clash is much anticipated for several reasons. In my previous post on this blog (fifteen weeks ago), I said that Melbourne were operating at about eight percent, and it was around this time of year against the same opponent that Melbourne suffered their last loss of the season before an insane purple patch. However, I think this game is much different, and I think that Adrian Polykandrites describes Footscray as a "hypothetically good team", where as in 2021, Footscray were a very good team. Much like plenty of other games in this round, both teams have lots to play for. Footscray are attempting to play finals, and while this win isn't necessary, it would help in their race against Richmond. Meanwhile Melbourne are chasing Geelong down at the top of the ladder, and while the minor premiership is a bit of token award, securing a top two finish and two home finals is important for Melbourne.

Model Prediction: Melbourne by 7 pts @ 59%.

CARLTON vs. GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY

Sunday July 25 1310hrs @ Docklands

It seems that Greater Western Sydney have begun their "redevlopment" stage (tanking). This is pretty evident with their choices at the selection table this week with Jesse Hogan and Tom Green being "managed". Because of these two huge loses, and home ground and advantage, and Carlton being a better team; it is hard to see Carlton lose this game. Carlton look on current form with what I have as the fifth-hardest remaining draw, like the top four will be very challenging to make, but I don't think many Carlton fans will be complaining about the progress that they have made this year. For me, I'll probably chuck this game on in the first quarter and if it isn't competitive, will do other things.

Model Prediction: Carlton by 22 @ 75%.

COLLINGWOOD vs. ESSENDON

Sunday July 25 1520hrs @ M.C.G.

For the second time this year, Collingwood and Essendon meet at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. Since then Essendon slumped to two wins from twelve matches, but have improved and won four of the last five matches. Essendon interestingly are very small chance of finals, around 0.05%, enough to be in some replicates of my simulations. Collingwood are on one of the luckiest runs I have ever seen, eight wins in-a-row, with six under two goals. Their last two games against North Melbourne and Adelaide were poor performances and they barely scraped by. It is very difficult to pick a winner in this match, and I want to see Collingwood lose in a close one because it would be funny to watch Collingwood Twitter implode.

Model Prediction: Collingwood by 3 pts @ 54%.

WEST COAST vs. ST KILDA

Sunday July 25 1640hrs* @ Perth Stadium

The last game of the match, in the traditional Perth graveyard shift. St Kilda have been absolutely woeful in the last five weeks, yet somehow are still competing for a spot in the finals. This is a must win for St Kilda, with the seventh-hardest remaining fixture, it is hard to see a scenario where St Kilda lose this game and make finals. St Kilda should be too good against a West Coast side which I still rate as very bad.

Model Prediction: St Kilda by 8 pts @ 60%.

Thanks for reading.