AFL: 2020 Round 3

I have decided to make a couple changes to my model after a poor showing in the tipping last round. I have now created a proper HGA value. HGA advantage is 100 for an interstate home game, and 50 for a Melbourne team in Geelong and vice versa. This has made significant alterations to the current standings at present. I have also adjusted my margin prediction formula. Like other models this season, I have taken four-fifths of what would be the regular margin. The amount tips I have scored this season had remained unchanged. However, my bits and MAE have improved because of these adjustments. 

On another note, I have decided to combine all of my spreadsheets into one master spreadsheet for each season. Below are my Round 3 tips, and you can also view tips for the other rounds. I will also be making individual team summary, and later there will be more additions.

Those coming from Reddit or Twitter, please share this blog around so that one day I can join the Squiggle model tipping competition. Email me and suggestions for statistical analysis. I would also appreciate feedback.

Some interesting comments, North Melbourne are now rated as the third best team in the competition, which to me is quite surprising. According to last rounds' adjusted tips, Gold Coast won with a 7.5% chance, a huge boilover. 

Highlights from the Round 3 tips include, a close game at Docklands between Footscray and Greater Western Sydney, the tip is going to Greater Western Sydney by 3. The other close game is between Gold Coast and Adelaide at Carrara, the tip is going to the visitors by 8.

Updated spreadsheet here. 

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

For Squiggle Bot 2023

Model Rework Part I (The c-value)

AFL: Round 19 2022