2022 AFL Season Preview
SIMULATIONS
Ten thousand simulations were run and the following results were obtained. Here is the link to the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQQ1kAxyJpFHWcWYSPigKC7VM-2jwod1cup8Vklkqj-KXbbLnEIhzsU5-rpwjeVSr6ZY1IaCAenmcXP/pubhtml?gid=1276015891&single=true
There is a lot of uncertainty baked into the simulations. A more thorough discussion can be viewed for each team further down the page.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
Also an often seen part of a preseason analysis is the strength of schedule. As you have seen with the uncertainty, strength of schedule has uncertainty as well, we cannot know for certain how good a particular team will be long term. From hardest to easiest.
Footscray -0.77 Wins.
GWS -0.43 Wins.
Melbourne -0.32 Wins.
St Kilda -0.25 Wins. (Hard schedule as always)
Geelong -0.21 Wins.
Brisbane -0.13 Wins.
Sydney -0.09 Wins.
Port Adelaide -0.07 Wins.
Fremantle +0.00 Wins.
Essendon +0.02 Wins.
North Melbourne +0.13 Wins.
Richmond +0.18 Wins.
Hawthorn +0.20 Wins.
Collingwood +0.27 Wins.
Carlton +0.30 Wins.
West Coast +0.30 Wins.
Gold Coast +0.56 Wins.
Adelaide +0.63 Wins.
These ended up not being exactly zero-sum, but a close enough approximation.
And now, some brief team-by-team analysis.
ADELAIDE
After consecutive dreadful seasons from Adelaide, and a lack of any success after the 2017 Grand Final, Adelaide are again favoured by the models and bookies to be towards the lower end of the ladder. Adelaide fans should be content to see Adelaide attempting to reach mid-table. Rory Laird and Taylor Walker will be out for the first month, so I am expecting a slow start. Their defence is not great either. Adelaide have the easiest draw. It's only up from here.
Expected Wins: 8.85
Expected Ladder Position: 12.28
Median Ladder Position (Pass Mark): 13th
Median Finals Position (Pass Mark): No Finals
BRISBANE
Despite the horrendous performance in finals of the last three years, Brisbane are in premiership contention, and are many pundits' flag tips. For me, I take a much more pessimistic outlook, though I could easily this being my model's worst tip. Without Hipwood, there are questions whether Brisbane can maintain their attacking game style of recent years. Expect them to slide from last year.
Expected Wins: 11.40
Expected Ladder Position: 8.97
Median Ladder Position (Pass Mark): 9th
Median Finals Position (Pass Mark): No Finals (lol)
CARLTON
It's Groundhog Day, another preseason, and things will be different at Princes Park this year, only to be humiliated in Round 1 when by the men from Punt Rd. Many pundits fancy them to play finals. The punters disagree, and the views from the models are even more grim. As always, the head coach hot seat at Princes Park has a new challenger in Michael Voss; expect a new coach at Carlton in two years. Expect Carlton to stay right where they are.
Expected Wins: 9.13
Expected Ladder Position: 11.91
Median Ladder Position (Pass Mark): 13th
Median Finals Position (Pass Mark): No Finals
COLLINGWOOD
Chaos at Victoria Park; a nightmare 2021 season, on and off the field. The good news is, it can't get much worse. Craig McRae is tasked with steering this half-sunk ship somewhere respectable. I wouldn't expect much. As with Adelaide, only up from here.
Expected Wins: 8.43
Expected Ladder Position: 12.80
Median Ladder Position (Pass Mark): 14th
Median Finals Position (Pass Mark): No Finals
ESSENDON
At Windy Hill, the expectation is finally win a final. Mick Malthouse is expecting a premiership, and much like Carlton the 'Big 4' mentality lives on in the media. They played finals last year, but it's not going to be easy to qualify again. Expectation are high and will probably be crushed again. They'll stay about where they are.
Expected Wins: 11.03
Expected Ladder Position: 9.43
Median Ladder Position (Pass Mark): 9th
Median Finals Position (Pass Mark): No Finals
FOOTSCRAY
A place where you don't have to scroll all the way down Dogs fans. Runners-up last year, therefore, high expectations to follow. Contending for the premiership, but are have easily the most difficult draw.
Expected Wins: 13.00
Expected Ladder Position: 6.86
Median Ladder Position (Pass Mark): 6th
Median Finals Position (Pass Mark): Semi Final
FREMANTLE
As always seems to be the case with Fremantle, people often forget they exist. They are in a similar position to Carlton in the media, many expecting finals. The punters and the models disagree, and it is looking pretty grim for Fremantle. I don't expect horrible things from them, but probably no finals.
Expected Wins: 9.85
Expected Ladder Position: 11.01
Median Ladder Position (Pass Mark): 11th
Median Finals Position (Pass Mark): No Finals
GEELONG
Geelong made the Top 4 again, and didn't win the flag again. Geelong are in contention for the premiership again this year. Not much more to say, will probably lose another preliminary final this year.
Expected Wins: 13.51
Expected Ladder Position: 6.23
Median Ladder Position (Pass Mark): 5th
Median Finals Position (Pass Mark): Semi Final
GOLD COAST
Gold Coast still suck, and are wooden spoon favourites again. I would not be surprised if this club doesn't exist in 5 years time. Like Geelong, there really isn't much to talk about.
Expected Wins: 9.27
Expected Ladder Position: 11.76
Median Ladder Position (Pass Mark): 13th
Median Finals Position (Pass Mark): No Finals
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
A very peculiar case for this mob, they are the finalist from last year that I am hearing the least from. I expect great things from this side, who were plagued with injuries last season. A deep run into finals on the cards.
Expected Wins: 12.47
Expected Ladder Position: 7.55
Median Ladder Position (Pass Mark): 7th
Median Finals Position (Pass Mark): Elimination Final
HAWTHORN
Everyone thinks Hawthorn suck, and the modelers disagree. I have Hawthorn mid-table, however there is uncertainty with Clarkson no longer at the helm. And to be honest, I have not a clue with this group.
Expected Wins: 10.38
Expected Ladder Position: 10.32
Median Ladder Position (Pass Mark): 11th
Median Finals Position (Pass Mark): No Finals
MELBOURNE
Melbourne are just about every model's flag tip and clear favourites in the betting markets, and with good reason. Good side, not much to say.
Expected Wins: 15.09
Expected Ladder Position: 4.43
Median Ladder Position (Pass Mark): 3rd
Median Finals Position (Pass Mark): Preliminary Final
NORTH MELBOURNE
There are some positives for future North Melbourne, but they are obviously not competing for the premiership this year. Expect some improvement, but unlikely to be close to finals either.
Expected Wins: 7.95
Expected Ladder Position: 13.32
Median Ladder Position (Pass Mark): 14th
Median Finals Position (Pass Mark): No Finals
PORT ADELAIDE
A strong club, again in premiership contention, and would be a waste of this list not to win one. A lot of pundits are expecting a slide, and totally unbiased journalist Kane Cornes is expecting the premiership for them.
Expected Wins: 14.13
Expected Wins: 10.39
Expected Ladder Position: 5.52
Median Ladder Position (Pass Mark): 4th
Median Finals Position (Pass Mark): Semi Final
RICHMOND
Richmond are expected to make an improvement this year, and with good reason, they had a horrible injury run last season. The modelers aren't expecting a huge improvement, but certainly in finals contention and a dark horse for the flag (God help us).
Expected Ladder Position: 10.32
Median Ladder Position (Pass Mark): 11th
Median Finals Position (Pass Mark): No Finals
ST KILDA
Oh St Kilda, mid-table obscurity you are destined to be, and if you manage a deep run, you will bottle it, because you are St Kilda. Finals contenders. Very dark horse for the flag.
Expected Wins: 11.26
Expected Ladder Position: 9.16
Median Ladder Position (Pass Mark): 9th
Median Finals Position (Pass Mark): No Finals
SYDNEY
A good young team, and certainly in premiership contention; could yet improve more still. Finals very likely, and contending for the flag for the next three years I imagine.
Expected Wins: 12.49
Expected Ladder Position: 7.52
Median Ladder Position (Pass Mark): 7th
Median Finals Position (Pass Mark): Elimination Final
WEST COAST
West Coast are going to tumble down the ladder, anit-vaxxer Darling has cost this team heaps. I foresee a long rebuild, and it will hit the AFL's hip pocket.
Expected Wins: 9.36
Expected Ladder Position: 11.62
Median Ladder Position (Pass Mark): 12th
Median Finals Position (Pass Mark): No Finals
SUMMARY
Uncertainty is the greatest aspect of sport. I hope this has provided some insight into where some of the teams are heading. Your comments and feedback are appreciated. May your [TEAM_NAME] do well in 2022.
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