AFL: Round 1 2022

 For the first time in what seems like ages, every match in Round 1 looks to be competitive.

MELBOURNE VS. FOOTSCRAY

Wednesday March 16 1910hrs @ Melbourne Cricket Ground.

For some reason, the executives at the AFL were so insistent that Carlton vs. Richmond was played on a Thursday night, that the scheduled the best match of the round on a Wednesday night. The ambition of 80,000 in attendance is was doomed from the outset. The media's attempt to build "hype" for the game has resulted in some shitty articles about a song. Besides the four premiership points, the winner of this match will be praised in the media as the "benchmark".

Model Prediction: Melbourne by 10 pts @ 63%

CARLTON VS. RICHMOND

Thursday March 17 1925hrs @ Melbourne Cricket Ground.

Both these teams had poor 2021 seasons; both these teams are touted by the media as the team to rise in 2022. I don't think Carlton are going to be any good this year, and Richmond will almost definitely be better. However, unlike many of their recent Round 1 encounters, this one might actually be competitive, and who knows, maybe Carlton can actually win this time.

Model Prediction: Richmond by 7 pts @ 59%

ST KILDA VS. COLLINGWOOD

Friday March 18 1950hrs @ Docklands.

This match getting the prime-time slot, and not the Grand Final rematch might be the biggest farce of the Round 1 schedule. In good news for the league, the general public tickets have just sold out. St Kilda is clearly the better of the two sides. I would not be surprised to see a comfortable St Kilda win.

Model Prediction: St Kilda by 15 pts @ 68%

GEELONG VS. ESSENDON

Saturday March 19 1410hrs @ Melbourne Cricket Ground.

The first of two "home" games for Geelong this year, despite the travel will be favourites for this match. Geelong are probably going to slide a little this season, and I'm expecting Essendon to stay around where they are now. And interesting match, certainly expecting a competitive one, and in best timeslot for a football match. However, as a pessimistic Geelong fan, the gut feel is an Essendon win.

Model Prediction: Geelong by 9 pts @ 62%

GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY VS. SYDNEY

Saturday March 19 1710hrs @ Stadium Australia.

Why are we playing football here again? And what the fuck are those 120m wide screens for, gambling and crypto? I genuinely can't pick a winner here, the two teams are both contending for the flag, and are both at a very similar level. However, that's not the important bit, Buddywatch is back. He's five away from 1000 now, if he stays fit, the security guards should be payed a bonus. Even in the unlikely event this game is a blowout, I will be watching and waiting for this special moment.

Model Prediction: Greater Western Sydney by 1 pt @ 51%

BRISBANE VS. PORT ADELAIDE

Saturday March 19 2010hrs* @ Gabba.

Jeez, the model is cooked, Port Adelaide are probably one of the most unlikely teams to win this week. Brisbane are the who have the best potential to stop Melbourne, and I suspect will be virtually unbeatable at the Gabba this season. Don't be surprised if this game is a huge blowout.

Model Prediction: Port Adelaide by 7 pts @ 59%

HAWTHORN VS. NORTH MELBOURNE

Sunday March 20 1310hrs @ Melbourne Cricket Ground

We move onto perhaps the worst match of the round, two really shit teams at an almost neutral venue, I'd rather watch paint dry. Sam Mitchell has giant shoes to fill, and Hawthorn's progression through the year will be interesting to watch.

Model Prediction: Hawthorn by 13 pts @ 65%

ADELAIDE VS. FREMANTLE

Sunday March 20 1610hrs* @ Adelaide Oval

Fremantle are promising better things this year, but travelling to Adelaide is never easy. Fremantle should enter slight favourites.

Model Prediction: Fremantle by 1 pt @ 51%

WEST COAST VS. GOLD COAST

Sunday March 20 1940hrs* @ Perth Stadium

West Coast have had a devastating run of injuries in the pre-season. If Gold Coast can't beat a significantly undermanned West Coast side, might as well just fold them. West Coast slide this year will be immense. My model is lacking player data and will not compensate for this, another tip wasted.

Model Prediction: West Coast by 9 pts @ 61%

*All times in AEDT.

Thanks for reading.

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